As I settle down to the final of the Great British Bake Off tonight, I know 96% of what is likely to happen. And I love it. I'm sure you do too.
In a time of constantly changing formats and itchy-fingered producers desperate to (world's most annoying phrases incoming) 'make their mark' or 'mix it up', GBBO stands almost alone in its unerring dedication to not only its format, but its style and tone. ('Almost alone' as I'd argue Strictly Come Dancing is similarly committed and - coincidence? - as popular and comforting. Perhaps even I'm A Celebrity falls into that camp too).
Tonight, as always there will be three challenges - a signature bake, a technical challenge and a showstopper. After some ups, downs and likely a drama about something either not cooking in time, melting, or going wonky, three bakers will stand in a garden surrounded by their family, friends, the previous contestants. There will be lots of cake. There will probably be an emotional mention of Nan. Then the judges and presenters will stand in a line and announce the winner and there'll be flowers and hugs and maybe some wet eyes and then there'll probably be a shout-out for people to enter the next series of GBBO and you'll consider it momentarily and remember the last time you made a cake and put it on the wrong chopping board when it was cooling and so it tasted mildly of onions, and you'll decide against it. Then, depending on your lifestyle, that's bed or time to click back into Netflix.
It's important to say that sticking to the familiar (beloved and genius) format isn't boring or staid. It's about not constantly fiddling with what works as TV shows (and particularly reality shows) seem to be obsessed with. For most shows, such as Love Island, I'd wager fans would argue that the changes don't enhance the show but chip away, series by series, from what you loved until you turn on one day, realise you're not enjoying it, and give up.
And despite format dedication, the show has always been incredibly diverse and inclusive in its choice of contestants - something lots of shows (MENTIONING NO NAMES) have never even come close to.
It's telling that though fans are often a bit disappointed when their favourite baker leaves the competition, it's a sting that rarely lasts long and the show continues unaffected. While thousands of fans were sad not to see Tasha Stonesmake the finale, you'll not see them boycotting the final because of it. Because really, it's the show that is beloved over all.
GBBO has seen its fair share of presenting changes over 13 years. But the unshakable show has survived and evolved. And while some articles will always hunt out the handful of unsatisfied viewers on social media, on the whole that's never been a real issue that's not quieted down eventually. Perhaps it's due to the dedication to choosing presenters who aren't just 'the next big thing' but who fit the show. The thread through the line-up of presenters is clear - they share a warmth, humour and silliness that is characteristic to the show and that extends to the spin-off shows too.
The spin-off shows are also uncharacteristically popular - there is a chance to be playful with the show, but there's always that Bake Off thread running through stylistically. And honestly, Junior Bake Off is the most underrated show of all time and I would give GBBO a million passes just for the creation of its junior version which you must, must try to catch up on, imbued with the same sense of fun and warmth and adorable presenters in Ravneet Gill and Liam Charles.
The GBBO format is so set, that it infamously survived the move from BBC to Channel 4 in 2016 when naysayers thought it would die. Remember the, yes, FRONT PAGE headlines and national handwringing? While much was made of the huge figures around the deal, it was understood by insiders that the format of the show was also central to the discussions.
And of course it's a format that's spurned a thousand shows trying to emulate the success. Three challenges, can't-quite-put-your-finger-on-it-cosy vibe, two judges, a fun presenter, lovely people who just enjoy their hobby and no-one is completely sure what the prize is.
There have been a million pieces (and I'm sure TV production brainstorms) dedicated to what makes the GBBO so special. And why we as a nation supposedly crave familiarity in 'such troubled times'. I'm not going to land my finger here on exactly what it's secret formula is - it's a 'if I could bottle it I'd be a millionaire' vibe isn't it? But one thing I do know is that it's stuck with it. And that's why as sure as millions of people will tune into tonight's final, they'll tune in again to the next series.