Here’s Who Will Be The Next Leader Of The Tory Party, According To The Bookmakers

There's a vacancy in the Tory party

Next Conservative leader

by Sophie Wilkinson |
Updated on

MPs who might become the next Tory leader

Rishi Sunak has lost the 2024 General Election, and has accepted that Labour have won. This means that it’s Labour’s turn to rule, and that Sir Keir Starmer will form the next government. It’s been a huge victory for the Labour Party and, aside from a couple of upsets, most of the party is simply growing, amassing more and more MPs with plenty of gains being made from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are also coming in fast for Tory seats, especially in more affluent areas.

It’s pretty clear that, at some point soon, Sunak will accept that he’s not the right person to continue leading the Conservative Party. He might stick around as an MP for Richmond and Northallerton, he might head off to Santa Monica, where he already has a luxury penthouse, to take up a job in tech nearby. He might end up being a spokesperson for Peloton, or Coca Cola. Who knows…

What we do know is that there’s going to be a vacancy for leader of the Tories and leader of the opposition. But with a lot of Tories collecting their P45s, including former cabinet ministers, people like Johnny Mercer, Lucy Frazer, and former coronation-era sword-bearer Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative Party has been whittled that much smaller. So who is going to be in charge next? And will they be from the more moderate or more right wing side of the party.

Considering how crucial betting and the gambling industry has been to this election - it was the rise in bets placed on a 4th July election coming, allegedly, from within Tory ranks and associated close protection police officers, that led to Labour preparing for battle - we checked out the bookmakers to see their odds on the morning of 5th July…these odds may chop and change, but right now, here are the likely frontrunners.

Kemi Badenoch


Across the betting sites, the MP for Saffron Walden and former Women and Equalities Secretary is on about 2-1 or 11/5 to win. The former business secretary is considered a strong contender, having had a good run when she competed for leadership in 2022. A staunch anti-woke candidate, she will pull the party rightwards from Sunak’s stance. She's left the door open to the race, previously saying, 'We will talk about leadership things after an election.' One of her strongest advocates is Michael Gove. She's been outspoken on a number of issues, including women's rights, equality and identity politics.

Priti Patel


The MP for Witham and former Home Secretary has kept mysteriously quiet in the past few months, distancing herself from Rishi Sunak and therefore able to say she could present an alternative to his approach, whatever that was. Popular with plenty of grassroots Tories, she’s on about 5-1 odds to be the next leader of the opposition.

Tom Tugendhat


A One Nation Tory, the member for Tonbridge is currently on about 5-1 to become the next leader of the Conservatives. The last time Tugendhat stood for leadership was two years ago, when he was unsuccessful. He’d likely pull a little more centrist than Sunak, but he could be swayed slightly the other way if the success of Reform in the polls is anything to go by.

Suella Braverman


The former Home Secretary sent shockwaves through the party when she dramatically resigned from Sunak's cabinet. Riding at about 10-1 to win the leadership, Braverman’s anti-migrant stance would pull the party sharply rightwards, and has previously expressed a desire to run the party, if not the country.

Robert Jenrick


Originally a Sunak loyalist, Jenrick was initially appointed immigration minister - however he later hit headlines when he resigned over Sunak's Rwanda bill, saying he could not continue while holding 'strong disagreements with the direction of the government's policy on immigration.' His odds sit at 8/1, so it's not totally beyond belief that he could run for the role.

Jeremy Hunt


The MP has ran to lead the party on several occasions in the past, but as of yet, has failed to do so successfully. After maintaining his Godalming & Ash seat, Hunt appeared to hint that he would be standing for the top job in opposition. 'Some Conservatives will wonder whether the scale of our crushing defeat was really justified. But when you lose the trust of the electorate, all that matters is having the courage and humility to ask yourself, why? So that you can earn it back again,' he said. Currently, Hunt's odds sit at 8/1.

James Cleverly


With odds sitting at 10/1, the recent former home secretary and former foreign secretary is another name popping up across bookies bets. He maintained his seat in Braintree, Essex, and is one of the more experienced former cabinet ministers in the party. However, Cleverly caused controversy last year after making a joke about date rape, later making a public apology. While it was reported that Cleverly had no plans to stand for Sunak's replacement, an official announcement hasn't been made - with the MP saying he would not 'rush to any quick judgements' about the result of his election victory.

Nigel Farage


Considering he’s managed to really ruin the Tories’ chances in plenty of seats by successfully splitting the right wing vote, and considering many Tories, including Baroness Ruth Davidson, have said they couldn’t fathom him in the party, it seems bizarre that he’s got a chance of becoming the next leader of the opposition, but stranger things have happened…

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