Will Lady Gaga Win An Oscar For A Star Is Born?

We predict yes - but not the one you think...

lady gaga a star is born

by Katie Rosseinsky |
Updated on

2019 is going to be Lady Gaga’s Oscar year. Whether or not she walks away with a statuette or two, on 24th February 2019, the Dolby Theatre will belong to one woman only. We knew it precisely one minute and 46 seconds into the first A Star Is Born trailer, when she hit us with that primal howl from Shallow, the wailing AHH AH-HA-AAH-AH AAA that sets the song’s final chorus on fire and then plays on infinite loop in your head (until you try to recreate it at 3am, when it proves entirely elusive). We knew it when she arrived at the Venice Film Festival, reclining on a water taxi in Marilyn Monroe cos-play to announce herself as a Proper Film Star. When she sat at a press conference with a name tag bearing the legend 'L. Gaga.' And we knew it every interminable time she re-hashed her favourite anecdote, the one about how there might be 100 people in a room but she only needs one person (in this instance, her director and co-star, Bradley Cooper) to believe in her: if that’s not generic Oscar speech fodder, then what is? Did we mention that the scream in Shallow might be the greatest sound of all time?

When you throw into the mix the wave of positive reviews, the film’s staggering box office takings and, erm, the cottage industry of memes that the film has birthed (sorry), a clutch of Oscar nominations for Gaga seem inevitable. Surely, it’s what she deserves. But which categories can she expect to receive a nod in? Will she actually win? And who is providing the main competition?

Will Lady Gaga get a Best Actress nomination for A Star Is Born?

a star is born lady gaga
©Shutterstock / Warner Bros

Cast your bets now: do not be surprised to hear Gaga’s (stage) name among the five Best Actress hopefuls read out when the Academy Award nominations are announced on 23rd January. Not only has she received overwhelmingly positive reviews for her performance as Ally, she’s also (unlike her character at the start of the film) a massive star. For better or worse, the Academy has a history of being enthralled by sheer star power: it's the reason that Meryl Streep can always count on a nomination, whatever the calibre of the film (Into The Woods, anyone? Thought not), and goes a long way in explaining why singers-turned-actors have historically done well at the Awards (see also: Cher and Jennifer Hudson). The fact that Gaga is already an Oscar nominee, albeit in the Best Original Song category (in 2016, she was nominated for Til It Happens To You, which appeared in campus rape documentary The Hunting Ground), and so is already very much on the Academy's radar, won't hurt her chances with Oscar voters, either.

So confident are Warner Brothers, the studio behind A Star Is Born, in Gaga's awards appeal that they decided to put her performance forward in the Best Actress - Drama category at the 2019 Golden Globes (she lost out to Glenn Close). Opting for the less crowded Comedy / Musical category would have arguably been an easier shot at success (Emma Stone, for example, took the Best Actress in a Comedy / Musical trophy at the Golden Globes for La La Land, a stepping stone for her to then win Best Actress overall at the Oscars, while notable Oscars threat and national treasure Olivia Colman won this year for her turn in The Favourite), so this move reads like an affirmation for Gaga’s chances – particularly given her potential competition…

Who will she be competing against?

At this stage, we’re merely speculating, but expect to see major competition from Glenn Close, who is slated to pick up her seventh Oscar nomination for The Wife and who in fact drew with Gaga for the top prize at the Critics Choice Awards, Olivia Colman, who has picked up rave reviews and a Golden Globe for an unhinged turn as Queen Anne in The Favourite, and from 2017’s Best Supporting Actress winner Viola Davis, for Steve McQueen’s Widows. Other potentials include Melissa McCarthy (for biopic-slash-black-comedy Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Nicole Kidman (doing the classic Nicole-wants-an-Oscar makeunder in Destroyer), newcomer Yalitza Aparicio, star of Alfonso Cuaron’s festival hit Roma and Kiki Layne for If Beale Street Could Talk, the Moonlight follow-up from Barry Jenkins.

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CREDIT: Warner Bros

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On Chesil Beach

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Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

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CREDIT: Disney

Mary Poppins Returns

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CREDIT: Getty

First Man

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CREDIT: eOne

The Post

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CREDIT: Marvel

Black Panther

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CREDIT: Warner Bros

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald

After 2016's inaugural Potter spin-off Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them comes the second in a planned five-part series, bearing the ever-so-slightly cumbersome title The Crimes of Grindelwald. Plot details have, of course, been kept largely under wraps, but we can expect to see Eddie Redmayne's Newt Scamander teaming up with Jude Law's Young Dumbledore to take down the dark wizard of the title. Johnny Depp's casting has (rightly) proved controversial: can the producers' decision to stand by the star in the wake of domestic abuse allegations stand up in the Times Up era?16th November

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CREDIT: Disney

A Wrinkle In Time

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Solo: A Star Wars Story

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Isle Of Dogs

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Phantom Thread

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I, Tonya

They say the truth is stranger than fiction: that seems, at least, to be entirely correct when it comes to the curious case of Olympic figure skater Tonya Harding, who fell from grace when she became implicated in a brutal attack on Nancy Kerrigan, her team mate and rival. To play Tonya (and to play against her superlative looks), Margot Robbie was transformed with layer upon layer of prosthetics. A classic awards tactic, yes, but one that's apparently paid off: her performance has so far earned nominations from both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs.16th February

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Red Sparrow

Jennifer Lawrence goes full femme fatale in Red Sparrow, playing a Russian ballerina who's forcibly recruited by the secret service. Once she has been trained up as a super-spy, she begins to question her loyalties when she embarks upon a relationship with a CIA agent. Based on that synopsis, we're expecting glossy, high octane thrills, with J. Law back in quasi-superheroine mode after a post-*Hunger Games *and X-Men lull. Charlotte Rampling, Joel Edgerton and Matthias Schoenaerts also star. 2nd March

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The Shape Of Water

If you were enchanted by the dark dreamscape of Pan's Labryinth, Guillermo del Toro's fantastical Spanish Civil War allegory, prepare to get excited for The Shape of Water, a 60s-set love story that's also a B-movie thriller. Sally Hawkins is expected to pick up an Oscar nomination for her performance as a mute cleaning lady who's captivated by a fish-man hybrid held in the high-security lab where she works. A touching romance that's far from the Hollywood norm unfolds, and like many of this year's awards hopefuls, it's not hard to read between the lines to infer a timely message, one of tolerance and acceptance.14th February

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Molly's Game

If you haven't already caught Molly's Game, the directorial debut from West Wing screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, may we kindly recommend that you do so, ASAP? Flawlessly delivering Sorkin's trademark mile-a-minute dialogue, Jessica Chastain gives an electrifying, can't-take-your-eyes-off-the-screen performance as Molly Bloom, the former Olympic skier who became the host of an underground Hollywood poker game which eventually counted A-listers and billionaires among its players. Out now

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Mary, Queen of Scots

Saoirse Ronan stars as the ill-fated Mary Stuart, the Scottish queen who became embroiled in intrigue when she made a play for the British throne, in this first screen effort from Josie Rourke, the departing Donmar Warehouse creative director. It also marks Margot Robbie's second film make-under of the year, decked out in ashy white make-up and a flaming red wig to play Elizabeth I, Mary's cousin and rival. The likes of David Tennant, Guy Pearce and Joe Alwyn also star.November

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Annihilation

From the director of Ex Machina, Alex Garland, comes Annihilation, a sci-fi-horror-thriller mash-up that promises to be just as cerebral and troubling as its predecessor. Based on the novel by US writer Jeff VanderMeer, it'll star Natalie Portman as a biologist who joins an all-female expeditionary group (featuring Jennifer Jason Leigh, Gina Rodriguez and Tessa Thompson) venturing into an environmental disaster zone. If new reports prove correct, it's set to sidestep a cinema release in the UK, instead dropping onto our Netflix dashboards this spring. Spring

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Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

A pitch-black tragicomedy from the writer of In Bruges, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri sees Frances McDormand as a grieving mother burning with righteous anger: after local police are no closer to catching her daughter's killer one year on from the murder, she rents a trio of billboards in an attempt to shame them out of their stupor. While the film has already proved critically divisive (with its problems centring around the racist cop played by Sam Rockwell), McDormand's blistering foul-mouthed performance is certainly worth your attention.Out now

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Lady Bird

As far as concepts go, Greta Gerwig directing Saoirse Ronan in a coming-of-age story set in early Noughties California might sound too good to be true, but that's Lady Bird's exact premise. Having already proved a major hit with US cinemagoers and critics (landing – for a time – the coveted 100 percent rating on review aggregate Rotten Tomatoes), it'll finally arrive on UK screens in the thick of awards season in February. Manchester By The Sea's Lucas Hedges and Call Me By Your Name's Timothée Chalamet pop up as the self-nicknamed 'Lady Bird's love interests, while Laurie Metcalf is generating Oscar buzz with her nuanced performance as the title character's mother.16th February

So... will she actually win an Oscar?

lady gaga a star is born oscar
©Shutterstock / Warner Bros

Based on the Awards season so far, it seems like it’ll be a close call (apologies in advance) between Close, Gaga and Colman. Close has history on her side: six nominations in, it seems pretty plausible that the Academy will want to celebrate her remarkable career – and if she loses, she’ll be the least successful Best Actress nominee in Oscar history, hardly a tag that the Academy will want to place against such a venerable star. Plus, Gaga will inevitably have to rail against some ingrained snobbery: some voters might still see her as a singer playing a character suspiciously similar to herself…

If Gaga does win, though, she’d be making Oscar history. A Star Is Born might well end up taking a Best Actress win and a Best Picture statuette – something that hasn’t happened for 14 years, since Hilary Swank’s win for Million Dollar Baby. Crunching the Oscar numbers finds that while the Best Actor and Best Picture awards have matched up 27 times, Best Actress has synched with Best Picture just 11 times. Though disappointing, this is hardly a shock: historically, female-focused stories haven’t held much sway with Oscar voters, and a Best Actress nomination will, more often than not, be the only nod which a film will receive.

Will Shallow win the Best Original Song Oscar?

Now we're talking. If Gaga is a lock for an Oscar win, it’s in this category – and not just because we’ve decreed that Shallow is The Best Song of All Time. Warner Bros have now officially submitted three songs from the movie – Shallow (which has already secured a Golden Globe for Best Original Song), Always Remember Us This Way and finale tearjerker I’ll Never Love Again – for consideration, and Gaga has a song-writing credit on all three. The Oscars limit final nominations to two songs per film, but it’s very likely that Gaga will receive the maximum number of nods. What with the film’s awards momentum, and the soundtrack’s chart success, A Star Is Born looks set to pull a La La Land (the 2016 film put forward three songs, received two nominations and won for City of Stars). It’s surely only a matter of time before we can start referring to Shallow as ‘the Academy Award winning Shallow’… Get practicing that howl.

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