2019 is going to be Lady Gaga’s Oscar year. Whether or not she walks away with a statuette or two, on 24th February 2019, the Dolby Theatre will belong to one woman only. We knew it precisely one minute and 46 seconds into the first A Star Is Born trailer, when she hit us with that primal howl from Shallow, the wailing AHH AH-HA-AAH-AH AAA that sets the song’s final chorus on fire and then plays on infinite loop in your head (until you try to recreate it at 3am, when it proves entirely elusive). We knew it when she arrived at the Venice Film Festival, reclining on a water taxi in Marilyn Monroe cos-play to announce herself as a Proper Film Star. When she sat at a press conference with a name tag bearing the legend 'L. Gaga.' And we knew it every interminable time she re-hashed her favourite anecdote, the one about how there might be 100 people in a room but she only needs one person (in this instance, her director and co-star, Bradley Cooper) to believe in her: if that’s not generic Oscar speech fodder, then what is? Did we mention that the scream in Shallow might be the greatest sound of all time?
When you throw into the mix the wave of positive reviews, the film’s staggering box office takings and, erm, the cottage industry of memes that the film has birthed (sorry), a clutch of Oscar nominations for Gaga seem inevitable. Surely, it’s what she deserves. But which categories can she expect to receive a nod in? Will she actually win? And who is providing the main competition?
Will Lady Gaga get a Best Actress nomination for A Star Is Born?
Cast your bets now: do not be surprised to hear Gaga’s (stage) name among the five Best Actress hopefuls read out when the Academy Award nominations are announced on 23rd January. Not only has she received overwhelmingly positive reviews for her performance as Ally, she’s also (unlike her character at the start of the film) a massive star. For better or worse, the Academy has a history of being enthralled by sheer star power: it's the reason that Meryl Streep can always count on a nomination, whatever the calibre of the film (Into The Woods, anyone? Thought not), and goes a long way in explaining why singers-turned-actors have historically done well at the Awards (see also: Cher and Jennifer Hudson). The fact that Gaga is already an Oscar nominee, albeit in the Best Original Song category (in 2016, she was nominated for Til It Happens To You, which appeared in campus rape documentary The Hunting Ground), and so is already very much on the Academy's radar, won't hurt her chances with Oscar voters, either.
So confident are Warner Brothers, the studio behind A Star Is Born, in Gaga's awards appeal that they decided to put her performance forward in the Best Actress - Drama category at the 2019 Golden Globes (she lost out to Glenn Close). Opting for the less crowded Comedy / Musical category would have arguably been an easier shot at success (Emma Stone, for example, took the Best Actress in a Comedy / Musical trophy at the Golden Globes for La La Land, a stepping stone for her to then win Best Actress overall at the Oscars, while notable Oscars threat and national treasure Olivia Colman won this year for her turn in The Favourite), so this move reads like an affirmation for Gaga’s chances – particularly given her potential competition…
Who will she be competing against?
At this stage, we’re merely speculating, but expect to see major competition from Glenn Close, who is slated to pick up her seventh Oscar nomination for The Wife and who in fact drew with Gaga for the top prize at the Critics Choice Awards, Olivia Colman, who has picked up rave reviews and a Golden Globe for an unhinged turn as Queen Anne in The Favourite, and from 2017’s Best Supporting Actress winner Viola Davis, for Steve McQueen’s Widows. Other potentials include Melissa McCarthy (for biopic-slash-black-comedy Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Nicole Kidman (doing the classic Nicole-wants-an-Oscar makeunder in Destroyer), newcomer Yalitza Aparicio, star of Alfonso Cuaron’s festival hit Roma and Kiki Layne for If Beale Street Could Talk, the Moonlight follow-up from Barry Jenkins.
NOW READ: The Films You Can't Miss In 2018
Best films 2018 grazia SLIDER
Ocean's 8
The prospect of a gender-flipped re-boot doesn't always fill us with anticipation, but that's not the case with Ocean's 8, which has managed to cast - deep breath - Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Helena Bonham Carter, Sarah Paulson, Mindy Kaling, rapper and comedian Awkwafina and Rihanna as a gang of con artists orchestrating a jewel heist at the Met Gala (Anne Hathaway plays their target). Given the star power involved, here's hoping they pull it off…Summer
On Chesil Beach
Having earned her first Oscar nomination (aged just 13) for Atonement a decade ago, Saoirse Ronan returns for another Ian McEwan book-to-film adaptation (this one with a script by McEwan himself). Based on the Booker-nominated novella and set in 1962 (the year before sex 'began,' as Philip Larkin would put it in Annus Mirabilis) On Chesil Beach follows a newly married couple on their honeymoon, tentatively preparing to navigate the physical and emotional awkwardness of their first night together. Billy Howle stars opposite Ronan, alongside Emily Watson and Anne-Marie Duff.15th June
Thoroughbreds
Playing out like a millennial Cruel Intentions with darker laughs and an even darker ending, Thoroughbreds is as poised and fast-paced as its title would suggest. Anya Taylor-Joy and Olivia Cooke make a compellingly twisted duo as Lily and Amanda, two privileged Connecticut teens who'd drifted apart until the latter's mum bribes the former to assist her daughter with SAT prep. Type-A Lily soon becomes fascinated by Amanda – and by whispered rumours about her pet horse's grim fate, too – and recruits her into an increasingly sinister campaign against her hateful stepfather.9th March
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
Everyone's favourite guilty pleasure musical (OK, my favourite guilty pleasure musical) is back for a sequel that's also a prequel: Lily James plays the twenty-something iteration of Meryl Streep's Donna, who's torn between younger versions of the three love interests we met in the first film. As the story jumps from past to present, the old gang of Amanda Seyfried, Dominic Cooper, Colin Firth et al is back, but a question mark hangs over Donna's fate – luckily, Cher has been drafted in for a cameo to distract from her absence. The question that no one's asking, though, is how have the producers eked out a sequel when the first film tore through almost every song on ABBA: Gold? 20th July
Mary Poppins Returns
53 years after Mary Poppins floated into the London sky, umbrella in hand, Emily Blunt will take on Julie Andrews' iconic role in an all-singing, all-dancing sequel – and as far as re-castings go, this one appears to be practically perfect in every way. Set in 1930s London, Mary Poppins Returns picks up with Jane and Michael Banks (played by Emily Mortimer and Ben Whishaw) as adults with children of their own. Meryl Streep, Colin Firth, Angela Lansbury, Julie Walters and Hamilton creator Lin-Manuel Miranda (who's also worked on the musical numbers) round out an all-star cast.25th December
First Man
Ryan Gosling re-teams with La La Land director Damien Chazelle for a new biopic that's stratospheres away from his love letter to old Hollywood musicals. First Man follows Neil Armstrong (Gosling) as he prepares to make the first landing on the Moon. The Crown's Claire Foy joins him as Janet, Armstrong's wife, in what will doubtless be her most awards-friendly role since taking on Queen Elizabeth II. Chazelle's film, which he's previously described as 'a mission movie' over a straightforward biopic, has been in development since 2014, and features a script by Josh Singer, who wrote 2016's Best Picture winner Spotlight.
The Post
Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks, Steven Spielberg and the Pentagon Papers leak: everything about The Post implies guaranteed success come awards season. Its subject matter, too, couldn't feel more timely. Streep plays Washington Post publisher Katherine Graham, the lone woman in the editorial boys' club, as she grapples with the ethical implications of her paper publishing (or not publishing) a classified report which reveals how successive US governments had stepped up the conflict in Vietnam. In other words, it's about holding those in power to account. A must-watch.19th January
Black Panther
It doesn't arrive in cinemas until next month, but Black Panther – the first standalone movie in Marvel's extensive stable to be fronted by a black superhero – is already setting records, beating Captain America: Civil War to become the studio's most pre-ordered film in the 24 hours after tickets became available. As T'Challa, the hero of the title, Chadwick Boseman heads up a cast that features Angela Bassett, Lupita Nyong'o, Michael B. Jordan and Get Out's Daniel Kaluuya. Here's to a future where Marvel movies don't exclusively star white guys named Chris…12th February
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald
After 2016's inaugural Potter spin-off Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them comes the second in a planned five-part series, bearing the ever-so-slightly cumbersome title The Crimes of Grindelwald. Plot details have, of course, been kept largely under wraps, but we can expect to see Eddie Redmayne's Newt Scamander teaming up with Jude Law's Young Dumbledore to take down the dark wizard of the title. Johnny Depp's casting has (rightly) proved controversial: can the producers' decision to stand by the star in the wake of domestic abuse allegations stand up in the Times Up era?16th November
A Wrinkle In Time
Madeleine L'Engle's fantasy epic isn't widely read this side of the Atlantic, but it's a beloved childhood favourite for many US readers. Now, the novel is getting the Disney blockbuster treatment with Ava DuVernay, the woman behind Selma and last year's The 13th, on directing duties. Joining her to tell the story of Meg (played by 14-year-old Storm Reid), a young girl who travels through space and time in search of her missing scientist father are Reese Witherspoon, Oprah Winfrey, Mindy Kaling and Chris Pine.9th March
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Fashioning a back story for one of the most iconic screen characters of all time is no small task, and for a moment, it seemed like the latest addition to the Star Wars spin-off universe would end up trapped in development hell: the film's two directors, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller parted with Disney due to the classic 'creative differences' halfway through production, with Ron Howard drafted in at last minute to wrap things up. All this behind-the-scenes drama only serves to make Solo: A Star Wars Story the more intriguing. Set to mark a tonal shift from past installments (it's been billed as having a comedy-meets-western feel, whatever that means), it'll see Alden Ehrenreich stepping into Harrison Ford's shoes, with Donald Glover as Lando Calrissian and Emilia Clarke, Woody Harrelson, Thandie Newton and Phoebe Waller-Bridge in as-yet-undisclosed roles.25th May
Isle Of Dogs
Wes Anderson's follow-up to The Grand Budapest Hotel__ was this doggie treat. A stop-motion animation in the vein of his Fantastic Mr Fox, Isle of Dogs is set in a dystopian Japan in which dogs have been confined to a garbage-strewn island after an outbreak of canine flu. This being an Anderson movie, the likes of Scarlett Johansson, Tilda Swinton, Edward Norton, Bryan Cranston and Jeff Goldblum are among those voicing the menagerie of canine characters.
Phantom Thread
Daniel Day Lewis' last role (or so he says – the three-time Oscar winner has a habit of announcing a career break then making a suitably dramatic return) sees him play a twisted 1950s couturier in Phantom Thread. So far, the film, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, has garnered five star reviews across the board and a clutch of awards nominations, too, while the dreamy New Look-style ball gowns are worthy of a real-life runway.2nd February
I, Tonya
They say the truth is stranger than fiction: that seems, at least, to be entirely correct when it comes to the curious case of Olympic figure skater Tonya Harding, who fell from grace when she became implicated in a brutal attack on Nancy Kerrigan, her team mate and rival. To play Tonya (and to play against her superlative looks), Margot Robbie was transformed with layer upon layer of prosthetics. A classic awards tactic, yes, but one that's apparently paid off: her performance has so far earned nominations from both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs.16th February
Red Sparrow
Jennifer Lawrence goes full femme fatale in Red Sparrow, playing a Russian ballerina who's forcibly recruited by the secret service. Once she has been trained up as a super-spy, she begins to question her loyalties when she embarks upon a relationship with a CIA agent. Based on that synopsis, we're expecting glossy, high octane thrills, with J. Law back in quasi-superheroine mode after a post-*Hunger Games *and X-Men lull. Charlotte Rampling, Joel Edgerton and Matthias Schoenaerts also star. 2nd March
The Shape Of Water
If you were enchanted by the dark dreamscape of Pan's Labryinth, Guillermo del Toro's fantastical Spanish Civil War allegory, prepare to get excited for The Shape of Water, a 60s-set love story that's also a B-movie thriller. Sally Hawkins is expected to pick up an Oscar nomination for her performance as a mute cleaning lady who's captivated by a fish-man hybrid held in the high-security lab where she works. A touching romance that's far from the Hollywood norm unfolds, and like many of this year's awards hopefuls, it's not hard to read between the lines to infer a timely message, one of tolerance and acceptance.14th February
Molly's Game
If you haven't already caught Molly's Game, the directorial debut from West Wing screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, may we kindly recommend that you do so, ASAP? Flawlessly delivering Sorkin's trademark mile-a-minute dialogue, Jessica Chastain gives an electrifying, can't-take-your-eyes-off-the-screen performance as Molly Bloom, the former Olympic skier who became the host of an underground Hollywood poker game which eventually counted A-listers and billionaires among its players. Out now
Mary, Queen of Scots
Saoirse Ronan stars as the ill-fated Mary Stuart, the Scottish queen who became embroiled in intrigue when she made a play for the British throne, in this first screen effort from Josie Rourke, the departing Donmar Warehouse creative director. It also marks Margot Robbie's second film make-under of the year, decked out in ashy white make-up and a flaming red wig to play Elizabeth I, Mary's cousin and rival. The likes of David Tennant, Guy Pearce and Joe Alwyn also star.November
Annihilation
From the director of Ex Machina, Alex Garland, comes Annihilation, a sci-fi-horror-thriller mash-up that promises to be just as cerebral and troubling as its predecessor. Based on the novel by US writer Jeff VanderMeer, it'll star Natalie Portman as a biologist who joins an all-female expeditionary group (featuring Jennifer Jason Leigh, Gina Rodriguez and Tessa Thompson) venturing into an environmental disaster zone. If new reports prove correct, it's set to sidestep a cinema release in the UK, instead dropping onto our Netflix dashboards this spring. Spring
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A pitch-black tragicomedy from the writer of In Bruges, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri sees Frances McDormand as a grieving mother burning with righteous anger: after local police are no closer to catching her daughter's killer one year on from the murder, she rents a trio of billboards in an attempt to shame them out of their stupor. While the film has already proved critically divisive (with its problems centring around the racist cop played by Sam Rockwell), McDormand's blistering foul-mouthed performance is certainly worth your attention.Out now
Lady Bird
As far as concepts go, Greta Gerwig directing Saoirse Ronan in a coming-of-age story set in early Noughties California might sound too good to be true, but that's Lady Bird's exact premise. Having already proved a major hit with US cinemagoers and critics (landing – for a time – the coveted 100 percent rating on review aggregate Rotten Tomatoes), it'll finally arrive on UK screens in the thick of awards season in February. Manchester By The Sea's Lucas Hedges and Call Me By Your Name's Timothée Chalamet pop up as the self-nicknamed 'Lady Bird's love interests, while Laurie Metcalf is generating Oscar buzz with her nuanced performance as the title character's mother.16th February
So... will she actually win an Oscar?
Based on the Awards season so far, it seems like it’ll be a close call (apologies in advance) between Close, Gaga and Colman. Close has history on her side: six nominations in, it seems pretty plausible that the Academy will want to celebrate her remarkable career – and if she loses, she’ll be the least successful Best Actress nominee in Oscar history, hardly a tag that the Academy will want to place against such a venerable star. Plus, Gaga will inevitably have to rail against some ingrained snobbery: some voters might still see her as a singer playing a character suspiciously similar to herself…
If Gaga does win, though, she’d be making Oscar history. A Star Is Born might well end up taking a Best Actress win and a Best Picture statuette – something that hasn’t happened for 14 years, since Hilary Swank’s win for Million Dollar Baby. Crunching the Oscar numbers finds that while the Best Actor and Best Picture awards have matched up 27 times, Best Actress has synched with Best Picture just 11 times. Though disappointing, this is hardly a shock: historically, female-focused stories haven’t held much sway with Oscar voters, and a Best Actress nomination will, more often than not, be the only nod which a film will receive.
Will Shallow win the Best Original Song Oscar?
Now we're talking. If Gaga is a lock for an Oscar win, it’s in this category – and not just because we’ve decreed that Shallow is The Best Song of All Time. Warner Bros have now officially submitted three songs from the movie – Shallow (which has already secured a Golden Globe for Best Original Song), Always Remember Us This Way and finale tearjerker I’ll Never Love Again – for consideration, and Gaga has a song-writing credit on all three. The Oscars limit final nominations to two songs per film, but it’s very likely that Gaga will receive the maximum number of nods. What with the film’s awards momentum, and the soundtrack’s chart success, A Star Is Born looks set to pull a La La Land (the 2016 film put forward three songs, received two nominations and won for City of Stars). It’s surely only a matter of time before we can start referring to Shallow as ‘the Academy Award winning Shallow’… Get practicing that howl.