Statistically Speaking, Could Ben Foden’s Two Week Whirlwind Marriage Actually Work?

Rugby player Ben Foden, who is equally well known for being married to Una Healey (the Saturdays) has married a woman (Jackie Belanoff Smith) who he knew for just two weeks before they got hitched.

Previous to this whirlwind, Foden didn't cover himself in glory. It's widely reported that he cheated on Una, who he split from in 2018. But is there any chance that this new start could work?

Let's start with the obvious: they've been dating for two weeks.

Whether or not a long dating period before marriage is a key factor in a successful marriage is a topic for debate. The marriages with the best outcomes in terms of not getting divorced are arranged marriages, which typically have a very short courtship. The divorce rate for an arranged marriage is 6.3%, compared to the UK average of 42%.

That said, statistically the best chance for a couple to have a long and happy marriage comes after between one and two years of dating. People who date for a long time (5+ years) before getting married also have reduced chances of the marriage lasting.

There are a lot of other factors which go into a successful marriage, on top of how long you've known each other. For instance, how you get married plays a role in your chances of staying married.

Ben married Jackie Belanoff Smith on a boat in Nantucket, with just her sister as a witness (and probably a crew, otherwise it would have been quite an unsafe boat). Their small wedding also doesn't bode well for the longevity of their marriage, as studies have shown that couples who have very small weddings are more likely to get divorced. Data scientist Randy Olson analysed wedding data and concluded that couples that elope are 12.5 times more likely to break up than couples that wed in front of 200 or more guests.

On the upside, statistics show that second marriages have a higher likelihood of working out in the long term. In the UK in 2017, 59% of divorces were between couples who had not been married before,and just 8% were between couples who had both previously been married.

Also, the fact that Ben allegedly cheated on his previous wife, Una, doesn't mean that he will automatically do the same thing again.

An article in Psychology Today explains that the maxim 'once a cheater, always a cheater' isn't always accurate.

People are apparently only likely to cheat again if the circumstances surrounding the original cheating haven't changed. Dr Jay Kent-Ferrano explains: 'The question is not "Can I ever trust him again?" but rather, "What contributed to this person's choice to betray me—why did they choose infidelity?"'

So in their favour they've got the fact that there's no guarantee that someone will cheap twice just because they did it once, and the fact that it's a second marriage. But standing against them is the length of the courtship (nothing wrong with a whirlwind romance, but let's face it, two weeks is pretty speedy) and the lack of family and friends at their wedding.

Ben Posted wrote on Instagram: 'People will say we are mad or crazy or even fools, as @snackyjax and I had only been dating seriously for a little over 2 weeks before deciding to get married. But when someone like her comes in to your life, why would I wait?'

He also said that he told his ex-wife Una before the wedding took place and that it happened with her full support.