If there’s one thing that’s come out of Brexit, it’s the realisation that so few people actually know what it means and how it’s going to work. The fact is though, we’re treading unchartered waters, so of course it was never going to be as simple as packing our bags, signing a contract and thanking the EU for having us.
There have been countless reports on the effect that leaving the EU has and will have on our economy and society. And now, one month on from one of the most historical referendums of our lifetimes, we’re all still pretty unsure of how it’s going to play out.
Since becoming Prime Minister, Teresa May has made it clear that Brexit is going to happen. And even though she’s said that Article 50 won’t go ahead before the end of this year, to now find out that we can still pull out of Brexit after Article 50 is initiated, probably won’t settle any uncertainty.
In case you need to be caught up, Article 50 is a clause which allows an EU member state to withdraw its membership. If you’ll forgive my simplification, I think of the whole process as being kind of like handing in a formal letter of resignation to your boss to confirm, for the record, that you weren’t just chatting rubbish that one time, you are actually leaving.
Under the clause, the process of leaving the EU is allowed to take up to two years, and it was previously understood that once we triggered Article 50, there was no going back . But legal professionals who have studied around it claim that Brexit might not be irreversible after all.
British barrister Charles Streeten says a EU member state can change its mind about leaving at any time before the two year deadline expires, reports Reuters. But according to EU lawyers Britain would need the approval of 27 other member states to reverse Article 50.
It’s not clear whether this means that both sides agree that initiating Article 50 is not actually the be all and end all of the fate of the UK, but it does seem like there’s a loophole within the clause that hasn’t been ironed out yet.
London-based Human Rights Lawyers, Bindmans, wrote to the government’s legal department to ask for some clarification around the issue. The government declined to comment, however.
In their letter Bindmans said: ‘It would appear to be in the UK’s interests for that issue to be resolved before the Article 50 process is commenced,’ which makes total sense. Because it would be pretty bloody silly to initiate something that we’re not entirely sure of, without fully understanding loopholes, consequences and whether or not it’s reversible, wouldn’t it...?
Will Brexit still happen after the election?
Probably. Theresa May hasn't shifted her position in any way since the election or moved away from a so-called 'hard Brexit.' However, some senior cabinet members have started to suggest that a 'softer' Brexit on the cards. On the night of the election, Brexit secretary David Davis suggested that the Tories could have lost their mandate for a hard Brexit after the election results. Chancellor Philip Hammond has since pressed for a softer approach to Brexit that puts the needs of business first. But no-one is suggesting that we halt talks completely.
Will Brexit still happen if Labour our in charge?
Yes. Probably. It depends. Jeremy Corbyn was a notoriously luke-warm supporter of the remain campaign and has never expressed a desire to go against the results of the referendum. The party broadly talks about pushing for a softer Brexit, that puts workers firs, but no-one's entirely sure what this means. The main distinction is that Labour have committed to getting us tariff-free access to the single market after we leave the EU, while Theresa May claims that 'no deal is better than a bad deal.' So the real question is, which of these negotiating stances would get us a better deal in the long run?
Can we stop Brexit?
It seems unlikely. The only parties committed to revisiting the Brexit question are the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, neither of whom have anywhere near enough seats to outvote the government. But then again, stranger things have happened this year.
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This article originally appeared on The Debrief.