Welcome to Life AB (After Brexit)…Expect to hear a lot about negotiations in trade agreements in coming weeks, months and years. Leaving the EU will be a long, drawn out and complex process. Today we’ve all woken up to the news that Britain has voted to leave the EU. The Leave campaign won the question over our nation’s future and now we will see ‘Brexit’ become a reality. David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister at around 8am this morning. Nigel Farage gave a rather gloating victory speech. Boris Johnson, unfortunate as he is to live in one of the UK’s most pro EU areas, was road blocked outside his house by cyclists.
51.9% of the country voted to leave the European Union yesterday, while 48.1% voted to remain. It was a very close vote but, nonetheless, a very clear one. Turnout was almost as high as it was in the 1992 General Election – which was the highest in recent history at 72.3 per cent. Yesterday 72.2 per cent of registered voters turned out.
READ MORE: How The EU Referendum Is Dividing Families Along Generation Lines
If you’re under 35 this probably isn’t what you voted for. Younger voters wanted Brexit the least and we’ll have to live with it the longest.According to YouGov here’s an estimate as to how different age and turnout might have affected things:
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain
50-64: 44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain
A quick scan of both The Debrief’s social media feeds and my own reveals that people are upset and worried. There are a lot of questions about what this: how does it affect our finances? How does it affect our travelling? Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister? What does it mean for jobs? What happens to British people living abroad? What happens to EU citizens living in the UK? Should we be worried about the fact that the pound has nosedived?
The truth is that we’re in unchartered territory here. Greenland is the only other country ever to have left the EU – or the European Economic Community (EEC). They did that in 1985.
We can’t really compare out situation to Greenland because their economy is very different to ours: their main export is fish. There is no real precedent for this. Jumping to conclusions won’t help anyone or anything and it would be disingenuous. For now, though, The Debrief is on hand to answer the questions you’re asking us:
How quickly will we leave the EU?
The UK is still, technically, a member of the EU. The vote itself is not legally binding, only the triggering of Article 50 will make it so. Until then we are still bound by the European Union’s treaties and the European Communities Act of 1972.
What that means is this: legally EU law is still applicable here and still actually has priority over UK law.
Nothing has changed, yet. As David Cameron said in his speech just before he resigned this morning in an attempt to reassure people, 'your circumstances will not change, immediately.' This afternoon Boris Johnson gave a speech and said there is 'no need for haste' when it comes to leaving the EU. However, Martin Schulz, President of the European parliament said that Britain needs to exit as quickly as possible because'uncertainty is the opposite' of what the EU needs.
Is the EU Brexit referendum binding?
No. Referendums are not binding in the UK. It was basically a giant opinion poll on which politicians will act. Parliament is sovereign, not the referendum.
What is Article 50?
It’s a clause in the 2008 Lisbon Treatywhich allows an EU member state to withdraw its membership. It’s looking likely that Cameron will leave bringing it into effect to whoever succeeds him as Prime Minister.
Activating Article 50 begins the process of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. We will not cease to be a member immediately, however, the process of leaving is allowed two years to complete under Article 50.
Once it’s activated we can’t go back. Until then the process isn’t legally binding.
How has Brexit affected the pound?
The pound has fallen and the markets are in what experts are calling ‘freefall’. The pound has, effectively, fallen off a cliff as you can see from this graph.
The pound has plunged a more-than-30-year low against the dollar today. The Japanese currency, Yen, has surged.
It’s likely that it will bounce back but it may not be as strong as it once was. Not for a while at least. This is likely to mean that buying goods or services from other countries will become more expensive, inflation will therefore be higher. Goods being sold to other countries by Britain will become cheaper for them to buy.
It’s official. Britain is no longer the world’s fifth largest economy – a fact with Vote Leave used to demonstrate that we’d be better off outside the EU. The UK is now poorer than France who are now the world’s fifth largest economy as we fall to sixth.
It’s worth saying at this point that we could bounce back – this is an immediate reaction to the result. But – once again – we’re in unchartered territory here so to predict the outcome either way would be pure conjecture.
Will we actually have £350 million a week to spend on the NHS?
The Vote Leave campaign made banners, posters and a wrap for their tour bus which said, clearly that if Britain voted to leave the EU we would have ‘£350 million a week extra to spend on the NHS.’
Experts have been saying clearly throughout the last few weeks that this figure was misleading, they concluded that leaving Europe wouldn’t literally mean that the UK had an extra £350 million to spend on the economy.
This morning, when asked on ITV’s Good Morning Britain Nigel Farage himself admitted that we don’t now magically have £350 million to spend on the NHS and tried to distance himself from the claim. He openly called Vote Leave's pledge to spend this money on the NHS 'a mistake'.
Can I still live in Europe after Brexit?
As Cameron said in his resignation speech this morning your ‘circumstances will not be affected immediately.’ As we said above, right now, Britain is still technically a member of the European Union. Freedom of Movement still applies, for now. There is no real plan – we don’t know what’s going to happen as negotiations for us to withdraw our membership of the EU get underway. The only honest answer is that we don’t know and won’t know until negotiations for Brexit have been completed which, as we also mentioned above, could take upto two years.
At the moment, as a member of the EU if you move to another country like Spain then you have free access to Spanish GPs and any hospital care you need is paid for by our NHS. If you then become a permanent resident Spain pays for your treatment. We have similar agreements in place with other EU countries.
How Brexit affects this is uncertain. If Britain stays part of the single market, aka the European Economic Area, then we might continue to have these agreements.
However, we don’t yet know for sure what will be decided on this.
Our country now has to clarify the status of the nearly 2.2 million EU workers living in the UK. As the BBC points out, if we toughen up or ask people to leave then it’s possible that EU countries could, in theory, retaliate. Close to 2 million people from the UK are currently living in other EU countries.
What will happen to my European friends living in the UK?
Once again, the only honest answer is this: we don’t know. Nothing will change immediately but it’s likely that things will change once negotiations are underway. The leave campaign did say that they wouldn’t deport anyone. However, now that David Cameron has resigned we don’t know who the next Prime Minister will be and we don’t know what they will decide.
Will I need a permit or visa to if I want to work in the EU?
You’re probably sick of hearing this by now but we don’t know. Everything depends on what sort of deal the UK is able to agree with the EU. If we remain as part of the single market then it’s likely that we’ll still have free movement, meaning that UK citizens can go and work in the EU easily.
However, if the new Prime Minister and cabinet decided to impose work permit restrictions – which is UKIP policy, by the way– then other countries could react and impose visas on people from the UK who wanted to work in their country. That said, it’s important to remember that UKIP have no more power than they did yesterday.
Wait, what is the single market?
Also known as part of the European Economic Area (EEA) is basically an agreement between different members of the European Union that they can trade with one another without any restrictions or charges. It came into effect on the 1st of January 1993
Is Brexit going to cause a recession?
The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has promised to protect the financial markets from Brexit hysteria. Speaking this morning he said that the Bank of England ‘extensive contingency plans’ to deal with this, despite the fact that the pound has fallen and shares are sliding.
Apparently finance ministers and officials from the European Central Bank are holding a conference call earlier, without David Cameron, to discuss the situation.
Many experts are arguing that ‘recession is a near certainty’.
Leading ratings agencies, who grade economies based on their strength, are also saying that this country’s AAA golden credit rating is likely to be slashed because of the decision to leave the EU. The reason they are saying this is because economic growth may be weaker in the immediate future and there is lots of uncertainty about future trade agreements.
Will signing the petition to get a second EU referendum make any difference?
Sadly the answer is no, probably not.
The vote was close but not contested in any way. It was a clear victory for those who want to leave the EU. The 48% of people who voted remain are angry, upset and disappointed.
A petition has been started on the parliament website’s petitions page calling for a second referendum. It’s been so popular that it’s already exceeded the number of signatures needed to guarantee a debate and crashed the site.
It is calling for rules which would trigger a second referendum on the outcome of yesterday’s vote based on the following logic:
‘We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based on a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum’
In theory the government has to look at this and discuss it. However, as we saw recently with a petition about student loans they could just completely ignore it.
It’s unlikely that this petition will change anything but signing it might make you feel better and it could trigger a debate at the very least. So, sign away.
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister?
Now that David Cameron has resigned and said that he wants there to be a new leader by October everyone's speculating as to who that will be. Boris Johnson is now an MP again which means, in theory, it could be him. He played a leading role in the Leave campaign and many have said that he did this to put himself at the front of the line if we did vote leave the EU. He is currently the bookies' favourite for the role.
Other contenders are Theresa May, currently Home secretary, Michael Gove, currently Education Secretary, George Osborne, currently Chancellor, as well as Priti Patel MP and Andrea Leadsom MP.
The nominations for the new Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party will come from Conservative MPs. Depending on how many people are noiminated there will then be a ballot in which members of the Conservative party will vote. If there is a clear winner then they will be our new leader, if not it could go to another ballot in which Tory MPs will then vote.
According to the House of Commons Library the Tory party membership is something like 149,800 people.
What does Brexit mean for the price of wine, cheese and prosecco?
This is a question very close to our hearts here at The Debrief. **The truth is that **the cost of European imports like wine, cheese or prosecco is unlikely to change significantly in the short term. However, that said, the pound is incredibly week following the announcement of Brexit which could affect the price at which we import stuff. Once they've negotiated Britain leaving the EU officially the price of such goods will depend on two things: what kind of trade deals we end up with and how the pound fares against the euro. Once again, the reality is we really don't know yet.
Just two days ago Rowan Gormley, the Chief Executive of Majestic Wine, told industry magazine *Retail Week *that while the 'supply chain would not be affected' the price of imported goods, such as wine 'would suffer price rises if Brexit leads to falls in the value of the pound...'
Should we be worried about the rise of right-wing parties in Britain now?
It's important to remember that the vote to leave the EU was directly a vote for UKIP. Indeed, Nigel Farage is still unelected. He isn't an MP. UKIP only has one representative in the House of Commons - Douglas Carswell of Clacton. It's too soon to properly analyse how and why we got to the point where Britain voted to leave the EU. Certainly, questions will be asked about how the Leave campaign portrayed immigration. People won't forget the disingenuous poster Nigel Farage stood in front of just the week before the voteany time soon. Some commentators are attributing this result to the rise of the 'populist right', by which they mean UKIP.
What does Brexit mean for parts of the country which receive EU funding?
Once we have officialy left the EU - however long that takes - we will stop paying money into the EU budget. We currently contribute a net amount of around £8.5bn a year to the EU, this will no longer be the case.
However, for areas of the country such as Cornwall which receive a lot of funding support from the EU or groups such as UK farmers who get direct payments from the EU worth about £2.4bn last year alone, the future is uncertain. We don't know how much of that money, if any, they will get from the British government once we are completely out of the EU.
The leader of Cornwall's council has already called on the government to guarantee that they will replace the millions of pounds worth of fundingthe region currently gets from the EU...
Will Scotland leave the UK because of Brexit?
Now that the UK has voted to leave the EU by 48% to 51.9% the case for Scotland leaving the UK and becomming independent is once again strong. Earlier today Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said that a second referendum on Scottish independence was 'highly likely'. She has said that the Scottish government are taking necessary steps to enable another vote on their independence from the UK.
She also said in no uncertain terms that it was 'democratically unacceptable' that Scotland faced the prospect of being forced to leave the EU against its will because of how England had voted. Last night Scotland voted in favour of staying on the whole with 62% of people in favour of remaining and only 38% in favour of leaving the EU.
*Send us your Brexit questions on Twitter @thedebriefand we'll answer as many as we can... *
You might also be interested in:
Roamin, Travellin, Learnin: Are Young People Really Better Off In The EU?
We Asked Young Europeans Living In The UK What They Think About Brexit
Follow Vicky on Twitter @Victoria_Spratt
This article originally appeared on The Debrief.