It’s a tale of two referendums. Welcome to neverendum land. Look...can EU just not. Wait, what’s the plural or referendum anyway? These days British politics throws up almost as many opportunities to pun as it poses questions.
There’s an almost poetic synergy to it. Just as the Article 50 bill finally passes through Parliament meaning that the Prime Minister can actually trigger it and start the process of leaving the European Union in a few weeks, marking the end of the EU referendum and the official beginning of Brexit another referendum is announced.
The Scottish First Minister has announced that she will ‘seek authority’ for a second referendumon whether or not Scotland will remain part of the United Kingdom to take place between 2018 and 2019. That means she’ll get sign off from Scottish parliament and ask Theresa May to grant permission which, so far, she has refused to say she will or won’t do. She could, in theory, say no.
However, whatever she decides May has found herself in a pretty precarious political situation. If she says ‘yes, thou shalt have your referendum’ to Nicola Sturgeon then she will be written into the history books as the Prime Minister who not only took Britain out of the European Union but oversaw the break-up of the United Kingdom! Surely, the only thing that could possibly be worse than that is being David Cameron, who will be remembered as the Prime Minister who failed to make a convincing case to remain in the European Union after gambling this country’s future in order to sort out a rift within his own party and quell the threat of UKIP snatching Tory seats.
If May says ‘no, Nicola. No referendum for you’ the outlook isn’t much better TBH. She will be accused of being undemocratic and, if things go badly at the negotiating table over our withdrawal from the EU, Scotland will cast her as the villain. May could also insist on delaying a referendum until after Brexit has been completed, if she does this she could be putting Scotland in a difficult position.
The morning after Scotland declined an opportunity to leave the United Kingdom way back in 2014, David Cameron stood on the steps of Downing Street and said ‘the debate has been settled for a generation…there can be no disputes, no re-runs’, he was evidently glad at the result. The referendum on Scottish independence was billed as a ‘once in a generation’ vote, but as of yesterday, it’s looking rather like lightning will actually strike twice in Scotland when it comes to independence.
There are those who say that Scotland shouldn’t have another referendum because this has already been decided. The arguments for a referendum, though, make the case that the circumstances are different now because when Scotland said ‘YES’ to the United Kingdom we hadn’t voted to leave the EU. Let’s remember that Scotland, overwhelmingly, voted to remain in the EU last summer by 62% to 38%.
So, do Scots actually want a referendum on leaving the UK? The polls show that there’s a fairly even split. While there has been a slight rise in support for independence from 45% to 49%, support for Scottish independence and support for remaining in the United Kingdom are effectively even at the moment.
Angela, a 25-year-old from Dumfries voted to leave the United Kingdom in 2014. Why? ’I felt like Scotland doesn’t have a real voice in Westminster’ she explains, ‘I still agree with this and think the European referendum is a huge example of that because Scotland voted to stay in the EU and, as things stand, we may be forced to leave along with the rest of the UK.’
Does she think the terms have changed since the last referendum? In short, yes. ‘I think in the first Scottish Referendum uncertainty over our EU membership [if we left the UK] was a huge issue for lots of people that voted to remain part of the UK…lots of people think differently now that this is no longer something we’ll have as part of the UK.’
Chloe, 27, from Glasgow, thinks it is ‘absolutely right that Nicola has called for a second Indyref considering the resolutely inflexible approach the Tories are taking on how EU powers will be repatriated to the devolved administrations.’ What was her stance on this last time around? She wanted Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom in 2014, ‘as a general rule I think nationalism is the politics of division’ she explains, and we should support strong social policies for the entire UK, regardless of postcode. However, the lack of strong opposition from the Labour Party [on Brexit] and their inability to effectively critique the Brexit process means that it is only fair that the Scottish people, who overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU, have an opportunity to shape the future of their country.’
Chelsea, 25 from Falkirk, echoes those sentiments. 'I voted no the first time and bitterly regretted it after Brexit and Theresa May becoming Prime Minister' she explains, 'I don't remember voting for her!'. That said, she says she is not 'a massive fan of the SNP either, but I think they're the lesser of two evils.'
Will we see Britain leaving the European Union as well as the break-up of the United Kingdom as we know it in our lifetimes? It's looking quite possible. Another good question is this…if the Scottish referendum wasn’t binding after all then why is last summer’s referendum on leaving the EU? If the argument for another referendum on Scottish independence is that the terms have changed, then surely that extends to Brexit as well? We didn’t know what the terms of leaving the EU would be prior to the referendum, now that the detail is being thrashed out you might argue that that’s grounds for another vote. Just saying.
Either way, few people would want to be standing in Theresa May’s leopard print kitten heeled shoes today. She’s between a rock and a hard place. What’s certain is that the messy, chaotic, divisive and uncertain nature of our politics isn’t going to change anytime soon. Welcome to the land of neverendums. British politics and referendums...name a more iconic duo...I'll wait.
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This article originally appeared on The Debrief.