Reports that Coronavirus cases are at record levels per day and the government is keeping ‘a close eye’ on numbers conjure one word in the minds of most people: lockdown.
After being promised there would be a ‘normal’ Christmas last year, the country was instead plunged into six months of restrictions. This year, we may have been told there'll be no new restrictions before the New Year, but it’s unsurprising that the public are still nervous about how winter could play out. 'Will there be a lockdown in January 2022?’ is now are trending search term on Google as well as 'Lockdown after New Year'.
But what has the government said about plans for a January lockdown and what does it intend to do to prevent the NHS coming under ‘unsustainable pressure’?
Will there be a lockdown in January 2022?
There has been no official word from the government on the likelihood of a January lockdown. Rather, it has only been confirmed that no new restrictions will come in before New Year. Boris Johnson was presented with the latest covid figures on Monday and is expected to make an announcement on next moves this week, according to reports.
However, there has been no suggestion from ministers that we will head into lockdown, in fact earlier this month business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng told Sky News that discussions around travel restrictions and lockdowns were ‘completely unhelpful’ and that the government doesn’t want a fourth lockdown.
In England, we're currently operating under 'Plan B' rules, but more stringent measures have been rolled out in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in response to the new variant. Experts from SAGE were calling for a lockdown before Christmas, saying that the government needs to provide clarification either way. 'Policy decisions, either to do nothing or something, will need to be made sooner than these uncertainties can be resolved,' a statement from them read last week.
What is the government’s Plan A and Plan B for managing Covid this winter?
Last month, Boris Johnson laid out his plans for preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed by a combination of Covid cases and other winter illnesses. In England, these measures are known as Plan A (which is being implemented already) and Plan B (which will come into force if the government deems it is necessary).
Plan A means offering 12-15-year-olds a single vaccine dose, offering booster jabs to 30million people who are at greater risk, encouraging people who are eligible to get a free flu jab and the continued use of the test and trace programme and free PCR and lateral flow tests.
Plan B is necessary when the NHS is under ‘unsustainable pressure’, and came into force earlier this month. It introduced mandatory Covid passports, compulsory wearing of face coverings and working from home where possible.
During the last three months, there have been around 2.7million cases of Covid, a similar figure to the number of cases seen between October 2020 and January 2021 (just over three million).
However, hospitalisations and deaths are now far lower. During the peak of last winter - when the vaccination programme was still in its infancy - over a 1,000 people were dying each day. The most recent figures show that, tragically, around 18 people are still dying each day.
Is there a Plan C for a full lockdown?
The government hasn’t acknowledged the existence of a ‘Plan C’ but ministers have also fallen short of totally ruling out another lockdown.
Last month, health secretary Sajid Javid refused to completely rule out a fourth lockdown, particularly if a new variant which could escape the vaccine emerged.
He told BBC Breakfast: ‘No one wants to see another lockdown, I certainly don’t. I don’t think we are going to need to see another lockdown. I think the vaccines are working.
‘But I think it would be irresponsible for any health minister in the world to say that this or that is 100 per cent ruled out.
‘Not least because I just don’t know whether at some time in the future – next year, the year after, the year after that – there might be a vaccine escape variant that doesn’t work with the current suite of vaccines.’
Announcing the government’s winter plans in September, Boris Johnson said the measures should mean no more lockdowns. He said: ‘When you’ve got a large proportion with immunity, then smaller changes can make a bigger difference and give us the confidence that we don’t have to go back to the lockdowns of the past.’
Despite these comments, half of British people think there will be another lockdown in the coming months, according to a survey by Savanta ComRes.