UPDATE: Brexit is still overwhelming and all-consuming but the result of all the below is out: the Spelman Amendment passed, which means that May is bound to ensure No Deal isn't on the table. This means Jeremy Corbyn is willing to meet with her to discuss what happens next. The Brady Amendment also passed, which means that all the MPs out there aren't happier with a made up deal that has still yet to transpire than the current backstop option. May has insisted she will renegotiate with the EU, then return to her MPs with a renegotiated deal, except they're still not budging.
Brexit is overwhelming and all-consuming and the news changes all the time but we all feel compelled to stay up to date. Because if the vote to leave the EU really wasthe will of the people, surely the people should be in-the-know? That’s why we’ve read a whole bunch of political reporting and live updates and commentating to bring you five pristine facts to guide you through tonight and hint what could happen next.
1. Theresa May will rip up her own deal
Despite weeks and weeks of insisting that it’s her deal or no deal or no Brexit, Theresa May is finally willing to tear up her own deal in order to get a new deal through Parliament. The only question is, what concessions will she have to make and to whom?
May has told parliament she’s going to ask the EU to open up the deal that she initially presented to the UK in December 2018, but whether the EU will budge, particularly on the Irish backstop is yet to be seen. As for the backstop, it’s a rule which will make it possible for Northern Irish-Irish trade to survive throughout the interim period after the UK leaves the EU. It’s disliked by hardline Brexiteers May needs to win over to get her deal through, though, as many see it as remaining in the EU by another name.
2. Valentine's Day vote might be the decider
Theresa May has decided that if a deal is not agreed by the 13th of February, there will be a vote to secure a deal by 14th February (happy Valentine’s Day!)
3. Here are the seven amendments (all named after MPs) that will be voted on tonight:
The Labour, SNP and Grieve amendments, which all aim to secure some days dedicated to discussing alternative Brexit options.
The Cooper-Boles amendment, which requires a debate next week on an extension of Article 50. If MPs vote for it, we won’t leave the EU on the 29th March as initially planned two years ago, but at a later date. This is so that the UK has longer to decide a Brexit deal, so no deal doesn’t happen. It took a while for the Labour leadership to be into this idea, and shadow chancellor John McDonnell has called it a ‘fallback’ in case a no-deal Brexit is on the table, however, it’s looking likely it will pass.
The Reeves amendment is similar, so won’t be voted on if the Cooper-Boles amendment wins.
The Spelman amendment is to take no-deal off of the table.
The Brady amendment is to replace the backstop with something else. Another, similar amendment, the Malthouse amendment, wasn’t picked to be debated by John Bercow, the speaker of the House of Commons.
4. Food shortages have been warned
Should there be a no-deal Brexit, there may be food shortages, several major supermarkets and restaurants have warned. Sainsbury’s, M&S, Asda, Lidl, Waitrose, The Co-Op and Costcutter, as well as McDonald’s, Pret A Manger and KFC, told MPs that a no-deal Brexit could seriously harm supply chains they rely on to, you know, feed the UK. Some Brexiteers have called this fear-mongering.
5. There's going to be an election soon - a by-election!
Fiona Onasanya, the former Labour MP who was ejected from the party after she lied about speeding so that she could avoid points on her license, has been sentenced to three months in prison. Which means that there’s going to be a by-election in Peterborough. If the Cooper-Boles amendment is successful and Article 50 is extended for a bit, the by-election might happen before Brexit. Peterborough voted 60% to Leave in 2016, but if a Brexit-backing candidate loses here, it could be used as a symbol of a wider change of mood across the country.