Wondering Who’ll Be This Season’s Breakout Models? Apparently There’s A Mathematical Formula For That

Can This Mathematical Formula Predict Who'll Be The Next Cara Or Kendall?


by Hayley Spencer |
Published on

How can you find out who'll be this Fashion Week's Cara Delevingne or Kendall Jenner? Apparently we needn't wait to see who closes Chanel, or who tots up the most struts - researchers from the Indiana University School of Informatics and Computing think they've found a mathematical formula to predict who the hottest new faces will be. Hint: a huge Insta following and long legs will help.

The algorithm is based on factors including eye colour, height, hip and waist measurements, shoe size, modelling agency, runways already walked, plus your all important Instagram followers and likes.

Emilio Ferrara, the university’s research assistant professor told The Cut: “We counted how many posts the models did, and how many likes and comments each post would get, on average... We collected the data on their portfolios: how many runway walks the models had already done, and a few other figures such as height (and) shoe size.”

They feed this info into a computer and hey presto - out comes the names of the next big faces. They predicted last season's biggest names with an impressive 80% accuracy.

The researchers chose 15 models to test the theory during the AW15 shows, predicting eight would be the most successful and seven the least. They were right about six names in each category, with Arina Levchenko, Sofia Tesmenitskaya and Renata Scheffer included in the most successful of their test group for the season.

In a nutshell - they found that an added inch above the height of your competition, hip and waist measurements that aren't above average, and being represented by one of the top 20 modelling agencies will give you the edge, as will frequent posting on Instagram and high numbers of likes.

No real surprises there, but Emilio did highlight the level of importance of social following: "Instagram is as important as being cast by a top agency in terms of its ability to predict success on the runway."

We can put that down to the Cara and Kendall effect - a lot of brands won't even consider a model with less than 10,000 Instagram followers.

Aspiring models: it's time to get working on your 'gramming skills.

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